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Autisme: sterke toename in de USA
Bron: www.ehjournal.net/content/13/1/73 .
5 sept. 2014
A comparison of temporal trends in United States autism prevalence to trends in suspected environmental factors
Cynthia D Nevison
Correspondence: Cynthia D Nevison Cynthia.Nevison@colorado.edu
Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
Environmental Health 2014, 13:73 doi:10.1186/1476-069X-13-73
The electronic version of this article is the complete one and can be found online at: www.ehjournal.net/content/13/1/73 .
Received: 10 January 2014
Accepted: 29 August 2014
Published: 5 September 2014
© 2014 Nevison; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
The prevalence of diagnosed autism has increased rapidly over the last several decades among U.S. children. Environmental factors are thought to be driving this increase and a list of the top ten suspected environmental toxins was published recently.
Temporal trends in autism for birth years 1970–2005 were derived from a combination of data from the California Department of Developmental Services (CDDS) and the United States Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA). Temporal trends in suspected toxins were derived from data compiled during an extensive literature survey. Toxin and autism trends were compared by visual inspection and computed correlation coefficients. Using IDEA data, autism prevalence vs. birth year trends were calculated independently from snapshots of data from the most recent annual report, and by tracking prevalence at a constant age over many years of reports. The ratio of the snapshot:tracking trend slopes was used to estimate the ''real'' fraction of the increase in autism.
The CDDS and IDEA data sets are qualitatively consistent in suggesting a strong increase in autism prevalence over recent decades. The quantitative comparison of IDEA snapshot and constant-age tracking trend slopes suggests that ~75-80% of the tracked increase in autism since 1988 is due to an actual increase in the disorder rather than to changing diagnostic criteria. Most of the suspected environmental toxins examined have flat or decreasing temporal trends that correlate poorly to the rise in autism. Some, including lead, organochlorine pesticides and vehicular emissions, have strongly decreasing trends. Among the suspected toxins surveyed, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, aluminum adjuvants, and the herbicide glyphosate have increasing trends that correlate positively to the rise in autism.
Diagnosed autism prevalence has risen dramatically in the U.S over the last several decades and continued to trend upward as of birth year 2005. The increase is mainly real and has occurred mostly since the late 1980s. In contrast, children’s exposure to most of the top ten toxic compounds has remained flat or decreased over this same time frame. Environmental factors with increasing temporal trends can help suggest hypotheses for drivers of autism that merit further investigation.
Keywords: Autism; Temporal trends; Air pollution; Mercury; Vaccines; Organophosphates; PBDEs
Enkele belangrijke punten:
... 75 tot 80% van de toename van het aantal autisme gevallen sinds 1988 is reëel en niet toe te schrijven aan veranderede diagnose criteria.
... de blootstelling aan de 10 meeste verdachte toxines is in die tijd gelijk gebleven of afgenomen, deze kunnen dus niet gecorreleerd worden met de toename van autisme.
de concentratie van Pb in het bloed is afgenomen, de emissie van CO, NOx, SO2, VOC en PM2.5 is afgenomen
... van enkele toxines is het gebruik toegenomen.
de concentratie van Al in het bloed is toegenomen (vaccins ?), de 'application of glyphosate to genetically-modified corn and soy crops'is togenomen.
Nog de 'results' uit het artikel:
Temporal trend in U.S. autism
The slope ratios for the California IDEA age-resolved snapshot and constant-age tracking trends suggest that about 80% of the tracked increase in California autism is ''real'' as opposed to due to better diagnosis, both for birth year intervals 1988 to 1994–1997 and 1993 to 1999–2002 (Figure 1). These results are relatively insensitive to the choice of tracking age, within the range of 8 to 11 (Additional file 1: Figure S2a, Table 1). The California results are similar to and within the standard deviation of the mean results across the United States (Table 1). The latter suggest that 77 ± 8% of the tracked increase over birth years 1988 to 1994–1997 is real and that about 74 ± 8% of the tracked increase over birth years 1993 to 1999–2002 is real.
In the above calculations, the birth year period from 1988 to 1994–1997 was the earliest interval used to derive a linear trend. Attempts were made to calculate linear tracking slopes beginning as early as 1985, but the error in those slopes exceeded 10% for all but a few states, suggesting that temporal trend could not be approximated well with a linear fit. This problem was traced back to an upward inflection in the IDEA constant-age tracking data around birth year 1988 (evident in Figure 1 for California and in many other states in Additional file 1: Figure S1). This inflection is also evident in the 2002 age-resolved snapshot for California and a number of states (Additional file 1: Figure S1). However, the slope errors of the snapshot-based trends for most states were less sensitive to the use of 1985 instead of 1988 as a start year than were the slope errors of the constant-age tracking trends. The snapshot data were more variable in general, and for this reason a slightly looser standard (slope error < 15%) was applied to them for inclusion in Table 1. The slope errors of < 10% (tracking) and < 15% (snapshot) were used as criteria to filter out states with erratic data and to identify those for which the temporal trend could be approximated well as a linear slope.
Comparison of the slopes of the 2002 age-resolved snapshots for CDDS and California IDEA data shows that IDEA has a steeper trend than CDDS (3.4 vs. 2.6 per 104 yr-1) over the overlapping 1988–1995 birth year interval (Figure 2). The absolute IDEA numbers are also about 40% higher on average than CDDS. Comparison of the CDDS and IDEA 5 year-old tracking slopes over the overlapping1995-2001 birth year interval shows that the IDEA trend is more than 50% larger than the CDDS trend (6.4 vs. 4.1 per 104 per year) and that the absolute IDEA prevalence is again about 40% higher on average than CDDS prevalence. Comparison of the two CDDS curves in Figure 2 for the overlapping 1990–1995 birth year interval shows that the CDDS 2002 snapshot data are about 40% higher on average than the CDDS 5 year-old tracking data, suggesting under-ascertainment among the 5 year-olds. Under-ascertainment among 5 year-olds relative to 10 year-olds is also evident in IDEA constant-age tracking data for all states in Additional file 1: Figure S1.
Trends in suspected environmental factors
Most of the suspected environmental factors examined have flat, decreasing, or mixed but recently decreasing trends. A relative few stand out as having increasing trends that are positively correlated to varying degrees to the rise in autism. A summary of the temporal trends over the 1970–2005 time frame of the autism data is as follows:
Lead, PCBs, dioxins, organochlorine pesticides, vehicular emissions, air pollution, PAHs.
Trends mixed but recently decreasing
Organophosphate pesticides, PFCs, postnatal vaccine thimerosal. These compounds increased during the early part of the 1970–2005 period but began decreasing at some point during the later period.
Phthalates, atmospheric Hg, total blood Hg. These compounds have relatively flat temporal trends over the time period of available data (dating back only to the early to late 1990s for the U.S.).
BPA. For BPA, German data suggest a decreasing trend since about 1997 but U.S. data are only available since 2003 and were therefore considered inconclusive (Additional file 1: Figure S15).
Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), cumulative aluminum adjuvants, cumulative total immunizations, glyphosate, maternal obesity.
Zie verder bovenstaande link voor de complete publicatie, de waarschijnlijk de meest uitgebreide tot nu met een enorme misser de invloed van EMV wordt niet genoemd, zie daarvoor:
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